Can the Global Football Economy Sustain Current Player Valuations?

Sonam Soar

In the last decade, football has transformed from a global sport into a multi-billion pound entertainment industry. Transfer fees that once shocked the fanbase are now seen as common, with many players being sold at around £100 million - even midtier players are holding values that would have been unimaginable 20 years ago. But as valuations continue to climb, a burning question emerges - can the global football economy really sustain this level of spending? 

Football's financial growth has been exponential in recent years, with the world’s top 20 clubs producing just under £8 billion combined revenue in 2024 - this is more than double what was made just 10 years earlier. Big clubs such as Real Madrid and Manchester City now earn over £700 million annually, and with this extraordinary amount of money these clubs have been able to spend grandly. The 2023 transfer window saw global transfer fees exceed £8.4 billion, a record figure. Transfer spending had reached a new level. Perhaps even more striking is how valuations have spread across a team. It was once the case that elite strikers would be valued the highest, but now midfielders, defenders and goalkeepers all attract high figures too, such as goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga’s price tag of £71.6 million for his move to Chelsea in 2018. Much of this growth is due to commercial revenue, or income the club generates from non-core activities such as advertising and sponsorship deals.

A key factor to consider is how this revenue has dramatically been influenced by state-backed wealth, particularly in the Middle East. The latest ‘culprits’ of inflated valuations are mostly Saudi Arabian clubs, who are backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF). In 2023 alone, Saudi clubs spent over £7.8 million - 10% of global transfer activity. While this injected money into the system, it also pressurised expectations across Europe, showing growing signs that the market would become even more demanding. Clubs, such as PSG and Newcastle United, are linked to some form of state or foreign funding, so can afford to pay premium prices for players and pay wages that smaller clubs cannot match. This has in turn led to a market split; the ‘big clubs’ vs everyone else. While this spending makes transfer headlines exciting and unpredictable, it does raise long-term stability concerns. The heavy dependence on exceedingly wealthy club owners rather than organic growth of the industry means this inflation may be set on unstable foundations, and instead of continuing to expand could face a heavy fall in the next few years. 

Perhaps the most influential regulations within the industry are the Financial Fair Play regulations introduced by UEFA. They were introduced to prevent reckless spending and ensure clubs ‘live within their means’. However, its enforcement has been inconsistent, and club owners have been more than happy to spend as much as they desire. Many clubs use sponsorship deals from related companies to meet FFP rules on paper, yet continue to spend heavily. The result? A system that seems sustainable on the surface but is broken underneath. Even those established big-company names become vulnerable. FC Barcelona, one of the richest clubs in the world, has faced significant financial distress in recent years. They are famed for big spending, such as the heavy €120 million spent for Antoine Griezmann in 2019. However, due to multiple cases of lavish spending, Barcelona were forced to sell all their assets, and refinance €1 billion debt. If one of the world's biggest clubs can reach such a damaging point, it raises serious doubts about how sustainable these prices are in the economy. 

A large part of the problem lies in how football values its assets. A player's price is no longer only based on natural ability, but rather their marketing power, social media following, or shirt sales. This in turn has blurred the line between real and commercialised football. The transfer of Neymar to PSG for €222 million in 2017 remains the most expensive in history, and while it dramatically boosted the profile of PSG, a small proportion would argue it was financially responsible. To this day, valuations often reflect emotion and branding rather than what is logical. This in turn creates risk to the system. If fan engagement or these ‘golden’ sponsorship deals decline, or even if tighter financial regulations are put in place, these grand prices may stabilise, but at what cost? Despite these risks, football seems to stay resilient - the rise of women's football and the WSL has given new financial flow to the industry, and the use of media to promote women's football has offered new financial opportunities. As well as this, the upcoming 2026 World Cup in North America is expected to generate record profits and further expand this already rapidly evolving world. However, this growth in new markets cannot be used to justify these extortionate valuations. Many new fans are engaging more with the digital side of football, such as simply just streaming the highlights as opposed to attending the game in person, which suggests that while football's audience is rapidly growing, its monetary potential may not keep up with this pace. 

The beautiful games economic model has survived many challenges, such as the COVID Pandemic, but even this industry may be at full capacity. Unless equilibrium is reached between spending and revenue, the inflating player valuations cannot continue unless the economy wants the risk of collapse. Football's booming transfer market reflects its global hold and its financial vulnerability. The game has never been more money-pumped, but it has also never been more dependent on constant, untouched growth to sustain itself. Until clubs rebalance ambition with reality, the global football economy may find its players are worth less than they appear.