The Perspective #01: January24

The Houthi Red Sea Experiment

Shay Patel

Since the Israel-Gaza War, Houthi rebels have been targeting strikes on shipping that they claim are aiding the Israelis, in the Red Sea. The Houthis have also struck a British tanker, which they say was in ‘response to American-British aggression’. The Houthis have also fired missiles and drones to Israel, most of which have been intercepted.

The Houthis are a military group who have seized control of major parts of Yemen, and declare themselves as being part of an Iranian-backed resistance group against Israel; this group also includes the Hamas terrorists and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement. It is thought strongly in the Western world that Iran is supplying the Houthis with weapons and arms, though Tehran vehemently denies this. The Houthis have continually aimed strikes at US and UK warships and commercial ships in the Red Sea, which have jeopardised trade and security.

On the 11th January 2024, the UK followed the US by carrying out air strikes on Houthi targets, and have continued doing so. Rishi Sunak, the PM, has said that this was ‘necessary and proportionate’ to protect global shipping. The strikes have been backed by the major political parties, including the opposition.

The Rwanda Plan: Rishi’s rebellion

Aditi Prashanth

14th April 2022. The beginning of the end.

While Rishi’s enthusiasm and commitment to the Rwanda plan seems well-known globally, it was in fact, Boris Johnson that announced the Rwanda asylum policy; a plan that would send shockwaves and divisions through the Conservative Party, pushing the boundaries of U.K. politics to the brink. In relation to Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” pledge, the Rwanda Plan seems to have become quite a contentious issue, but, let me pose the question, what exactly is the Rwanda Plan?

The Rwanda  Plan is a five year agreement establishing that asylum seekers arriving in the U.K. would be sent to Rwanda, a small landlocked country in East Africa, to have their claims processed there. If successful, they were granted refugee status and allowed to stay there. If not, they had two options: find themselves struggling through another rigorous application process to settle in Rwanda, or seek asylum once more in another “safe third country”. Yet, the question of compatibility looms large, did anyone think of ECHR Article 3?

Well, this is where our story gets interesting, as we move away from Parliament and the executive, and instead begin to follow the journey of the legislature. On the 15th of November 2023, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled The Rwanda Plan as unlawful, through its breaching of the European Convention of Human Rights, which prohibits torture and inhuman treatment, in Article 3. Yet Rishi Sunak is still committed to fight this Bill through Parliament, recently stating that the Lords “should do the right thing” with the new proposed Bill, as he wants flights carrying asylum seekers to take off to Rwanda “as quickly as possible.”

So it seems that the heart of the matter lies in the clash between legality and political will. Hence, Sunak's determination to push the Bill through Parliament, despite the Supreme Court's ruling raises the question: Rwanda - a rebellion or revenge?

Labour’s lead in current opinion polls

Juliette Hussey

Labour’s current success in the opinion polls claims a 49% of the vote in comparison with the conservatives’ 27%. The party have been ahead in the polls since early 2022 and with leading political scientist, Sir John Curtice labelling these polls a ‘brutal problem’ for the Conservative party, this could possibly point at a change in government for the UK later this year.

Further polls reflect this in reporting that below 18% of previous Tory voters would divert their vote to Farage’s Reform UK in the upcoming election.

According to similar poll results, the most widely popular policy of Labour's is their promise  to greatly increase the number of training places for doctors to 15,000. This policy reportedly has the support of 86% of Britons possibly reflecting their growth in popularity.

However, with the general election date still under speculation and Starmer’s approval ratings remaining below 0, there could still be a turnaround for the Conservative party as of yet. 

The Return of Trump?

Krish Chaddha

The prospect of Donald Trump’s resurgence to the forefront of global politics stirs both anticipation and apprehension among spectators. However, before we excessively speculate about what could be, we should evaluate the obstacles to this. Presently the Republican primaries are going on - how a state can select its preferred candidate. Normally, we would find out the party’s victor at the Republican National Convention in July, however, Trump's unwavering support in the party means it is indicative that he will be the Party’s candidate. This resolute support for Trump meant that alternate candidates- Burgum, DeSantis, Ramaswamy and Scott, among others- all ended their campaigns and endorsed Trump. Notable contenders dropped out following astounding defeats in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. On the opposite side of the fence, we see that the likely Democrat candidate is Biden, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election wherein Biden narrowly defeated Trump. For Trump, a double-edged sword is the 90+ court cases currently active against him, though apparently negative for him this controversy appears to have bolstered support for Trump, as many believe he is being wrongly convicted. A further barrier to Trump's second term is the multiple states (i.e. Maine and Colorado) which have banned his name from being on the ballot on grounds of insurrection over the Capitol riots.

Trump has not been shy to outline his plan to get the US ‘back on track’. A main feature of this includes ‘retribution’ for the 2020 election loss which he believes was unjust. Trump will also be focusing on a severe immigration crackdown; reigniting his protectionist tariff policies against China; and a revision to NATO relations, more directly affecting the war in Ukraine.

In 2016 Trump inherited a presidency in a relatively stable geopolitical climate, now there are multiple raging wars across the globe, which are compounding the lingering effects of COVID-19. The polarising nature of Trump means that many shudder to think what a second term could mean for a more fragile global community.

Bibliography:

BBC. (2023) “Who Are the Houthi Rebels and Why Are They Attacking Red Sea Ships?” [Article] BBC News. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67614911

BBC. (2024) "What is the U.K.’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda?" [Article] BBC News.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-61782866

The Guardian. (2022) What is the ECHR and how did it intervene in U.K.’s Rwanda plans? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jun/15/what-is-the-echr-and-how-did-it-intervene-in-uk-rwanda-flight-plans

Politics. (2023). "Latest Opinion Polls - The Result Of A General Election Today" [Article]. https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/

Smith, F. (2023). "How popular are Labour policies in 2023?" [Article] YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45821-how-popular-are-labour-policies-2023#:~:text=The%20most%20popular%20policy%20of%20[Accessed%207%20Feb.%202024]

CNN Politics. (2024). “2024 Presidential Candidates: Republican Field Politics.” [Article] CNN Politics. https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/presidential-candidates

Murphy, M. (2024). “Donald Trump Says Colorado Ballot Ban Could Unleash ‘Chaos.” [Article] BBC News. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/68026910#

Swan, J., Haberman, M., and Savage, C. “How Trump and His Allies Plan to Wield Power in 2025.” [Article] The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-2025-second-term.html