The Perspective #05: May24

Gething’s Tumble: Senedd’s Confidence Crumbles

Aditi Prashanth

In a dramatic turn of events, Wales' First Minister Vaughan Gething lost a critical vote of no confidence, only 12 weeks after beginning his role in office, following mounting pressure from opposition parties and growing public dissatisfaction. The motion, tabled by the Welsh Conservative Party, stems from a series of controversial decisions and perceived leadership failures, most prominently regarding Gething accepting £200,000 in donations for his leadership campaign, received from a company whose owner, David Neal, was convicted of dumping waste on the Gwent Levels in South Wales.

Gething, who succeeded Mark Drakeford in 2023, has seen his administration plagued by issues ranging from health service management to economic policy missteps. Critics point to the recent healthcare crisis, where long hospital waiting times and staff shortages have caused public outrage, as a significant factor undermining his leadership. Additionally, economic challenges, including rising unemployment and sluggish post-pandemic recovery, have further eroded confidence in his government.

Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrat leaders have expressed support for the no-confidence motion, expressing a need for new leadership to address Wales' pressing issues effectively, with the Conservative Party’s Andrew RT Davies stating  "We need a First Minister who can unite and lead us through these challenging times.” 

Gething, however, remains defiant, urging Assembly Members to consider his administration's broader achievements and ongoing efforts to address the country's challenges, insisting that his party “are committed to improving lives across Wales, and [he] believes we can overcome these obstacles together.” 

The immediate implications of this vote are uncertain, but it has already led to significant political upheaval within the Welsh Government. Moreover, there has been further speculation about potential successors, with several senior politicians positioning themselves for leadership. This pivotal moment marks a crucial moment for Wales’ political landscape, as it navigates its path forward; ultimately, it seems that we may soon witness a significant leadership shift.

Sunak’s National Service: ‘A Boomer Election’?

By Juliette Hussey 

On the 26th of May, the Prime minister announced his party’s pledge to bring back British national service in their next term. The scheme would require all 18-year-olds to take part in either a year of military service or a year of civil service one weekend a month in local communities. Sunak pledged the scheme would help to return a ‘shared sense of purpose among our young people and a renewed sense of pride in our country’. Many countries in Europe still have similar successful schemes in place: Denmark, Greece and Austria among them.

Whilst the government has assured the work will not be unpaid it is unclear how much will be spent on these young people’s salaries under this £2.5bn scheme. Amidst questions over whether parents of young people who fail to comply will be fined, the government assured there would be some sanctions in place but did not specify what form this enforcement would take.

Following a recent poll forecasting the crossover age to be 70 in the upcoming election and the increase in popularity of the reform party, the proposal appears to be a clear play for older voters from the conservatives to fortify their core vote. 

Keir Starmer labelled the policy as ‘desperate and underfunded’ whilst former chief of naval staff, Admiral Alan Wear, referred to it as ‘bonkers’. What the plan fails to consider is the already depleted defence budget and lack of officers available due to former cuts. The ability of the British forces to train, monitor and provide barracks for an entire year group of young people seems largely unfeasible as it stands. The emergence of this against a backdrop of already struggling public services and defence organisations seems to be in nonsensical as mentioned by former chief of the general staff Richard Danatt who marked it as ‘electoral opportunism’.

Throughout this election process, Sunak has brought down Labour promises by questioning where they will find funding but where the £2.5bn will be sourced from amidst promised tax cuts is still unclear

The younger generation has already been hugely impacted by two major lockdowns. Research from 2021 suggested that poorer students were up to three A-level grades behind their more economically advanced peers due to the use of predicted grades as A-level results in summer 2020. A report looking into the state of housing found that young people in 2021 were half as likely to own their home than people 30 years earlier had been. As of April 2024, the interest on student loans stands at 7.8% - a figure higher than most mortgages and any other previous cohort. In light of these barriers, the prospect of compulsory service to a government that they largely feel left behind by is bound to be disheartening for many young people in Britain.

The Nigel Effect

Shay Patel

The 3rd June 2024 marked a turning point in the election campaign thus far. In a dramatic turn of events, Nigel Farage has been unveiled as a Reform UK candidate in Clacton, and now the Reform UK leader, replacing Richard Tice. Only 10 days prior did he say that he would not be standing in the 2024 election. 

Nigel Farage, a man loved by many but despised by some, has now made things in this election interesting. I think we all know that our next inhabitant of 10 Downing Street will be Keir Starmer, but the real uncertainty is how many seats the Conservatives will pick up, or if they will even form His Majesty’s Opposition at all. This is where Nigel Farage comes in. Last week, the polls suggested that Reform UK would pick up 11% of the vote, but unlikely to win any seats. Now, with Farage as the top man, Reform has surged 5 points up to 16% in the polls, only 7 points now behind Sunak’s Conservatives. 

Only on Friday night, did polls suggest that Farage won the 7-party election debate, picking up 25% of viewers’ votes. In that debate, he put forward the view that this was the immigration election, believing that the Conservatives and Labour were 2 sides of the same coin with regard to illegal and legal migration, a view endorsed by many. Farage still has time to win over more voters, and Reform UK’s increasing popularity suggests that things are looking as ominous as ever for the Tories.

Trumps' Tribunal

Krish Chaddha

In the last few days of May, Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records that he was charged with. After 2 days of deliberating, all 12 jurors unanimously came to the conclusion that he was guilty. Swiftly after this announcement, Trump said: ‘This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt’, adding that ‘We’ll fight to the end’- very contentious claims.

At the centre of this 6-week long trial, was the claim that Trump had concealed a payment for the silence of Stormy Daniel’s. His sentencing has been set for the 11th of July, a matter of days before the Republican National Convention, where Trump will be confirmed as the party’s candidate. Though his legal team may make efforts to change this date so it isn’t so close to the convention.

It is very unlikely that Trump will face prison time, given that all of the charges against him are the lowest tier a felony can be in New York. Trump’s age and lack of previous convictions also make it more likely that his punishment is not remotely severe. Furthermore, Trump being entitled to lifelong protection from the Secret Service will complicate the prison establishment he could be sent to.

Despite being the first former US president with a criminal conviction, Trump still meets the requirements to be a presidential candidate. Earlier this year polls found that in key swing states, 53% of voters said they would not vote republican if Trump was convicted. Additionally, Trump could see his supporters- typically viewed as extremely loyal- reduce in numbers by 6% due to the charges.

Undoubtedly, Trump will look to appeal this decision as it hinders his chances for a 2nd term. Appeals could be on grounds of: a lack of detail by key witnesses, the District Attorney’s (DA) unique legal strategy, and whether the DA was within their right to ‘invoke an uncharged federal crime’- something that a state prosecutor has never done before.