The Perspective #13: Spring 2025

Nathan Samuel

Pope Francis dies at 88: Robert Prevost elected

On April 21st 2025, Pope Francis died at the age of 88. This brought his 12-year pontificate to an end, after being elected on March 13th 2013. Following his passing, there was a nine-day mourning period. After this, the conclave took place where the cardinals of the catholic church voted for the next pope. On May 8th 2025, Robert Francis Prevost was elected as the 267th pope (the first American), and he has decided to take on the name of Pope Leo XIV.

Tensions rise on the India-Pakistan border

On April 22nd 2025, civilians in the area of Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir, were attacked by five militants. The Indian government claimed that these militants were backed by the Pakistani government. This led to the deaths of 26 civilians, who were predominantly tourists. As a result of these attacks, there has been increased tension at the India-Pakistan border, especially in the Kashmir region. On May 7th, India launched Operation Sindoor, where missiles were launched into areas of Pakistan that the Indian government has claimed have “terrorist infrastructure”. On May 10th, a US-mediated ceasefire was announced, the ceasefire seems to have been held, despite both sides accusing each other of violations.

Stock markets plummet following Trump’s tariffs

Donald Trump announced his new tariffs on many countries around the world on April 2nd, in an attempt to reduce the USA’s reliance on foreign products dubbing it as “liberation day”. This led to massive uncertainty in financial markets: between March 25th and April 7th, the S&P 500 fell by over 12%. It is estimated that over £6.5 trillion in value was wiped from the stock market following liberation day. Furthermore, there was a surge in bond yields to approximately 4.5% for 10-year bonds, signally significantly reduced demand as a result of increasing uncertainty. After this instability, on April 9th, Trump announced a pause on all tariffs, excluding those on China in order to calm investors’ nerves and bring back stability.

Mass floodings in Brazil

In May 2025, southern Brazil faced catastrophic flooding. This flooding has killed about 169 people and displaced approximately 600,000. This has left nearly 420,000 households without electricity and over a million households without water. A lack of investment and maintenance into Porte Alegre’s flood protection system is one of the contributing factors to the scope of the damage. In addition, a phenomenon known as “El Niño”; this is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which disrupts regular weather patterns. This has led to an increase in rainfall in the southern regions of Brazil, leading to flooding. The intensity of rainfall, between April 24th and May 4th, was estimated to be 420mm.

Bank of England reduces base rates to 4.25%

The Bank of England has reduced the base rate from 4.5% to 4.25%. There was a split decision among the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with five voting for a 0.25% cut, two voting to maintain the rate at 4.5% and two voting for a 0.5% reduction. Alan Taylor, Bank of England policymaker, voted for a cut of the rate to 4% due to decreasing domestic demand and the “quite perilous” global trade situation. Two other Bank of England policymakers Clare Lombardelli and Megan Greene suggested that their votes to cut the rate to 4.25% were made in the light of continuing inflationary pressures in the economy.